Gavin Williamson’s plan to leave grading to teachers is ‘wide open to abuse’ and will ‘inevitably’ bump up marks because it is like football managers being left to predict their own team’s results, education experts told MailOnline today.
The Education Secretary was fire-fighting in the Commons this afternoon over his ‘Wild West’ system for GCSEs and A-Levels as critics queued up to warn that his plan could be even worse than last year’s hated algorithm.
Teachers have admitted that the system means grades will go up across the board and claimed the success of rival schools and academy bosses may put pressure on some headteachers and their staff to cheat the system.
Retired headteacher Chris McGovern, now chairman of the Campaign for Real Education, told MailOnline that today’s announcement is proof that ‘union bosses have taken control’ after Mr Williamson ‘surrendered’ to them.
He said: ‘The system of teacher-predicted grades is certainly wide open to abuse. It is equivalent to asking a football manager to predict his or her results.
‘Research from London University has shown that the accuracy of A-Level predictions is under 20 per cent. The examination currency is being undermined and is in danger being downgraded to junk status by employers’.
He added: ‘As prime minister, David Cameron told his party conference that we have the worst rate of social mobility in the developed world.
‘It is about to get worse. The poor and underprivileged will suffer the most and, so, the Wild West is an apt analogy’.
One drama teacher, Charlotte Wheeler, said the majority of her profession won’t arbitrarily mark students up or down, but overall she believes ‘results across a whole year group will be significantly higher’ in 2021.
She added in a Facebook post: ‘I’m not saying no teacher has or will or could cheat this system, by the way.
‘Some will, (and some Academy chains etc will be putting pressure on them to do so). But a cursory understanding of how exams work should tell us that the grades *should* go up under a non-exam system’.
Gavin Williamson confirmed to MPs today that teachers will have total control over the marks their pupils get, but insisted there will be ‘meaningful checks’ and ‘quality assurance’, with scope for appeals by students.
But critics have said no students will appeal because most are likely to get grades they are happy with because their teachers are deciding.
Experts warned that the new emphasis on ‘trusting teachers’ completely with determining results risked jeopardising the credibility of the qualifications and could lead to soaring grades with little consistency.
Education Secretary Gavin Williamson unveiled the details of the exams replacement plan in the Commons today, which critics including retired headteacher Chris McGovern branded the ‘Wild West’ and a ‘surrender’ to the unions
Teacher Charlotte Wheeler, said the profession won’t arbitrarily mark students up or down, but overall she believes ‘results across a whole year group will be significantly higher’ in 2021
Tory MP Robert Halfon, who chairs the Commons Education Committee, said inflated marks were ‘baked in’ and the system will be like the ‘Wild West’.
Mr Halfon told the Commons that exams being ditched for the second year in a row highlighted the ‘severity of the damage school closures have done’.
He accepted that the government had tried to come up with ‘the least worst option’, but added: ‘My concern is not so much abut having one’s cake and eating it, but baking a rock cake of grade inflation into the system.
‘So will he confirm what is the Government’s plan to ensure we will not have a Wild West of grading, that these grades will be meaningful to employers so as not to damage children’s life chances and when?
‘And how will we reverse the grade inflation and what is the rational for not tethering this year’s grades to last year’s or somewhere between 2019 and 2020? And why not embed quality assurance more broadly rather than rely on random sampling or spot checks?’
Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen told MailOnline: ‘This system is open to abuse because the teachers have the final say.
‘Some might not feel generous when grading a child but when they know teachers in other schools might bump up grades they may feel pressure to as well – it’s an arms race.
‘The reason we have exams is because they are the best way to test knowledge and skills and we have had to move to a more imperfect system that’s deeply flawed – but steps should and could have been taken to avoid that.
‘There is very little you can do about it now – but my big regret is that there was no uk-wide system agreed so it was equal across the nations because ultimately all these children will be competing in the uk further education and jobs market’.
Mr Bridgen has campaigned for A-level results to be known before students can apply to university to level the playing field between state and private schools.
He said: ‘Private schools are well known for pushing up predicted grades compared to state schools and this new system will only exacerbate this gap’.
In a Commons statement, Mr Williamson said there was no intention of using a computerised standardisation process – something that was disastrously tried and abandoned last year.
Instead teachers will be given training on guidance on how to be as ‘consistent as possible’, with ‘random sampling’ of results from schools and colleges. Pupils will be able to ask for tests, but they will only be voluntary.
‘Grades will be awarded on the basis of the teacher’s judgement and will only be changed by human intervention,’ Mr Williamson told MPs.
But ministers admit the arrangements are only the ‘best we can do’ amid the pandemic, with Boris Johnson saying on a visit to a school in Accrington today: ‘This is a good a compromise as we can come to.’
Sir Jon Coles, a former director general at the Department for Education (DfE) apparently resigned from the Ofqual committee advising on exams last month, and has now accused the Government of risking an outcome ‘much worse than last year’.
Others warned of an avalanche of appeals as families in England will have far fewer restrictions on challenges than usual, while the Education Policy Institute (EPI) said that without proper guidance for schools on how to benchmark grades against previous years there could be huge ‘inconsistencies’ which could make it difficult for universities to evaluate pupils.
Under the government proposals, exam boards will prepare a series of test papers for every subject – but teachers will be allowed to choose whether or not to use them to inform their predicted grades.
Teachers can decide to rely on previous essays, coursework, mocks or any other type of classwork if they wish – and can also choose to set their own ‘mini-exams’, either of their own making or using exam board questions.
However, students will not need to take the papers under exam conditions, while teachers will also be able to decide whether they are taken at home or at school. Grading decisions will only be altered by exam boards in rare cases where malpractice or questionable standards are exposed.
Exam board Ofqual is expecting a deluge of appeals over the teacher grades, with results days for both A-levels and GCSEs moved to earlier in August so administrators have more time to process requests for grade reviews in time for university admissions deadlines.
There is also expected to be a ‘whistleblower’ system for people to raise concerns about results at a school.
Mr Williamson said he was determined to make sure the ‘system is fair to every student’, adding: ‘It is vital they have confidence they will get the grade that is a true and just reflection of their work.
‘This year’s students will receive grades determined by their teachers, with assessments covering what they were taught and not what they have missed. Teachers have a good understanding of their students’ performance and how they compare to other students this year and from those of previous years.
‘Teachers can choose a range of evidence to underpin their assessments, including coursework, in-class tests set by the school and the use of optional questions provided by exam boards and mock exams, and we will of course give guidance on how best to do this fairly and also consistently.
‘Exam boards will be issuing grade descriptions to help teachers make sure their assessments are fair and consistent. These will be broadly pegged to performance standards from previous years so teachers and students are clear on what is expected at each grade.
‘By doing this, combined with a rigorous quality assurance process, are just two of the ways this system will ensure greater fairness and consistency. Quality assurance by the exam boards will provide a meaningful check in the system and make sure we can root out malpractice.’
On a visit to Accrington Academy in Lancashire this morning, Mr Johnson said: ‘I think in an ideal world you would not have taken kids out of school because of the pandemic, we wouldn’t have been forced to do this and in an ideal world we’d be continuing with exams as you normally have them, and the best place for kids is in the classroom and the best way to check on kids’ progress is with normal exams.
‘But I think this is as good a compromise as we can come to.
‘I think it will be fair, I think it will be durable and it’s the right way forward.’
Asked if he had confidence in the Education Secretary, the PM replied: ‘Of course, and I think that what we are doing is the right thing to get all our students, our pupils, back on March 8, I think that is what parents, teachers and overwhelmingly what pupils want to do, and I’ve just been talking to some of them here at Accrington Academy and they are really looking forward to it.
‘They have done very well, learning remotely, they’ve stuck with it, it’s been productive and got better over the course of the lockdowns, but the best place for kids is in schools and they have got absolutely no doubt about it the pupils themselves.’
Boris Johnson visited Accrington Acedemy in North West England today as the plans for exam replacements were unveiled
Mr Johnson chatted to pupils on his visit as the plan was revealed in the Commons by Mr Williamson
Mr Johnson and sixth form students donned masks and kept their distance as they spoke at Accrington Acedemy today
Earlier, schools minister Nick Gibb defended the plans, told BBC Breakfast: ‘Teachers will be required to produce the evidence and the second layer of quality assurance is checking by the exam boards.
‘So if the grades when they are submitted, if in a particular school they look very out of line with the achievements of that school in the past, that will be a signal for the exam board to pay extra attention, maybe pay a visit to that school to make sure that the evidence the teacher has collected to justify that grade really does justify that grade.’
Asked whether he accepted grades would be inflated this year, Mr Gibb replied: ‘Well, that’s why we’ve put in place all these different checking mechanisms to make sure that there is consistency.
‘But it is very important that the pandemic does not prevent students from going on to the next stage of their careers, whether that is to college or to university or to an apprenticeship, so we want to make sure that, despite the disruption that students have faced, they will still be able to progress.’
David Laws, executive chairman of the EPI, said: ‘Without robust mechanisms in place which anchor the overall results at a level which is consistent with previous years, there is a danger that the value and credibility of this year’s grades are seriously undermined.’
Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, said: ‘For millions of pupils and parents the single biggest concern with grades decided solely by teachers will be how will they be made fair?
‘We know that such assessments are fraught with unintended consequences that are likely to tilt the education playing field even further against disadvantaged pupils.’
Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said staff will also get to choose how they assess children – after exams were cancelled due to the pandemic. Teachers can decide to rely on previous essays, coursework, mocks or any other type of classwork if they wish. (File image)
The estimated grade system last year used a controversial algorithm which saw thousands of children having their results downgraded. This led to an outcry and protests (pictured) over the plan and it was scrapped days later, with grades then reverting to teacher predictions
Dr Jake Anders, an expert in education policy at University College London, said there was a high risk of grade inflation and added teachers were being put in an impossible and ‘ridiculous’ position and would come under pressure from all sides.
He told the Times: ‘It would be difficult to imagine appeals not soaring. Anyone who feels they’ve been under-predicted will appeal and those over-predicted won’t.
Schools minister Nick Gibb confirmed that teachers will have control over the marks their pupils get, but insisting there will be ‘protective measures’ and ‘quality assurance processes’
‘Every step seems to have been designed to be not consistent across schools and that’s what I’m fundamentally most concerned about.’
This year’s proposals signal a change of policy compared with last year when teachers’ estimated grades were subjected to a ‘standardisation’ process by exam watchdog Ofqual.
The system used a controversial algorithm which saw thousands of children having their results downgraded. This led to an outcry and protests over the plan and it was scrapped days later, with grades then reverting to teacher predictions.
Despite fears over the potential for grade inflation, the proposals for this year received backing from education unions last night.
Geoff Barton, general secretary of headteachers’ union ASCL, said he supported the approach ‘as the fairest way of giving [pupils] grades’.
Dr Mary Bousted, joint general secretary of the National Education Union, said the Government had ‘listened to the consensus amongst the profession and this process gives students the best chance at grades which are as fair and consistent as possible in the circumstances’.
Mr Williamson said: ‘We are providing the fairest possible system for pupils, asking those who know them best – their teachers – to determine their grades, with our sole aim to make sure all young people can progress to the next stage of their education or career.’
Mr Lebus said the arrangements would ‘make sure students’ grades reflect what they have achieved’.