More proof England’s Covid-19 outbreak is slowing down? ONS estimates 35,200 people got infected every day last week – a rise of 26% in a week (but the speed of growth has slowed again)
- Office for National Statistics data is based on random swab testing of the population across England
- Its estimates last week were of 27,900 new infections per day and a total of 336,000 over the time period
- Sir Patrick Vallance yesterday said ‘the epidemic is still growing’ and will continue to until R is below one again
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An estimated 35,200 people caught coronavirus every day last week, according to official data published today – an increase of 26 per cent from the week before.
A weekly report by the Office for National Statistics calculated that a total 433,300 people in England probably had Covid-19 in the week between October 10 and 16. The estimate was up from 336,000 a week earlier, and the projection of new daily infections was up from 27,900.
Although the data – considered the most reliable indicator of the true size of England’s outbreak – shows the epidemic is still growing, it also suggests it may be slowing down.
Daily cases more than doubled between October 2 and 9, then increased by two thirds (62 per cent) the following week to 27,900 per day by the 9th of the month. But this week’s increase is significantly smaller at 26 per cent.
The data echoes comments by the UK’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, who said yesterday that there are now signs local lockdowns are starting to work and that case numbers are beginning to show ‘flattening’ in some areas.
It comes as separate predictions by a King’s College London team make a similar estimate, that there are now 36,000 cases per day across the UK, with 28,000 of them in England.
The data from the King’s study, run with healthcare tech company ZOE, is usually lower than the ONS’s because it estimates only people who get symptoms.
The ONS’s report is based on random mass swab testing across the population of England, which does not take into account whether people feel ill or not. The same people are tested regularly to see how many of them develop Covid-19 over time.
