UK’s coronavirus outbreak was even deadlier than SAGE’s ‘worst-case scenario’ which predicted 50,000 deaths by September and easing lockdown without robust contact tracing scheme will push R above 1, government papers reveal
- SAGE estimated 50,000 deaths if lockdown compliance was low, in March report
- But official death toll already at 44,000 and may have passed 50,000 month ago
- Separate paper handed to No10 days before curbs eased warned R could rise
Britain’s coronavirus outbreak has been even deadlier than Government scientists’ worst-case scenario, secret papers published today revealed.
SAGE estimated 50,000 people could die by September if compliance with lockdown was low, in a report submitted to ministers on March 29.
But as of today the official Covid-19 death toll already stands at 44,000, but separate government figures show the UK topped the dreaded 50,000 mark a month ago.
Another scientific report presented to ministers warned that easing lockdown without a robust track and trace system would push the reproduction rate above 1.
The paper was handed to Number 10 on May 27, four days before the Government sent a chunk of the workforce back to work and let some non-essential shops reopen.
Nine documents were today published by the Government Office for Science, which is headed by Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser.
They are among dozens in a tranche of papers presented to SAGE over recent months to help guide ministers through the crisis.
SAGE estimated 50,000 people could die by September if compliance with lockdown was low, in a report submitted to ministers on March 29