Britain’s coronavirus outbreak may not plummet to levels seen in Australia and New Zealand for months, data suggests.
Figures from the Our World in Data project shows Australia’s recorded more than one new case for every million people for a fortnight.
It eventually peaked on March 27 at 17.56 but analysis shows it has yet to dip below the one mark 25 days later.
IT MAY NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY UNTIL MID-JUNE…
If the same outbreak trajectory was applied to the UK, it would mean Britain’s rate of cases per million people would not dip below one for another 10 weeks.
For example, Britain’s cases peaked on April 13, with 94 positive tests for every one million people.
It took 32 days for Britain to reach its peak from passing one new case per a million people – 2.3 times longer than Australia.
Simple maths would suggest it could take the UK 2.3 times longer than Australia to dip below the same threshold, if it miraculously followed the same path.
Such an equation would result in Britain getting back to fewer than one case per a million people each day by mid-June.
…BUT IT COULD DROP IN A MATTER OF WEEKS
But if the UK’s outbreak took a similar trajectory as New Zealand, the cases could dip much sooner.
For example, New Zealand’s rate was also higher than one for 14 days before hitting the peak (15.97) on March 31.
However, the Our World in Data statistics show it took the country just 16 days to get the rate below one again.
Using that same equation, it would mean it would take fewer than three weeks for Britain’s curve to dip below one.
ANOTHER INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA SUGGESTS IT COULD PEAK BY MID-MAY
Britain’s outbreak would potentially be over sooner if it followed similar percentage drops as seen in Australia and New Zealand.
For instance, the Our World in Data analysis shows that Australia’s cases per million halved in eight days, dropping to 8.72 on April 3.
It then took four days to halve again (3.87 on April 7) and then a week to drop two-fold again (1.67 on April 14).
Using the same figures for the UK, it would mean Britain’s cases per million would have halved by April 21.
They would then halve again by April 25 and then dropped two-fold again by May 2 – at this point the rate would be around 11 to 12.
From this point, it took New Zealand 16 days to dip below one – 16 days from May 2 would take the UK to May 18.
But Australia’s has still yet to dip below one again – 20 days after the rate was less than 12, suggesting it could take even longer.
BRITAIN’S OWN DATA SUGGESTS IT WON’T DIP TO AUSTRALIA LEVELS UNTIL THE END OF JULY
But Britain’s outbreak did not follow the same percentage trajectory. Instead they fell by just 16 per cent, from 94.21 to 78.81, over that eight-day period.
If the figures dropped 16 per cent every eight days, it would that mean Britain’s crisis would not dip below the one case per million mark until the end of July.
One new case per million people would be the equivalent of around 60 a day in the UK – a rate still five times higher than that seen currently in South Korea.
For example, official figures from South Korea – which never imposed a lockdown – show the country recorded just nine new cases today.
Top scientists praised the country’s rigorous testing and tracing regime, which saw health chiefs contain the crisis which peaked at the end of February.
However, epidemiologists say there is no accurate way of predicting the demise of an outbreak because no two crises are the same.
Several different factors are at play in causing a reduction in the number of cases, including lockdowns and testing regimes.
WHAT ABOUT WHEN LOOKING AT DEATHS?
Using the same set of figures but for deaths paints a similarly bleak picture – neither Australia or New Zealand ever had a rate higher than 0.35 per million.
The UK’s rate exceeded this mark on March 20 – and kept accelerating for 22 days until peaking on April 11 (13.74).
It took 10 days to drop to 9.49 – the equivalent of a 31 per cent decline. It suggests it would take 40 days to get to around two deaths per million.
But Australia has only recorded 71 deaths and New Zealand 13, meaning their death rates are not able to be accurately compared to Britain.
Leading statisticians say the decline in COVID-19 outbreaks is never as sharp as the spike, meaning the curve down will not be symmetrical.
WHY DO AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND HAVE DIFFERENT SIZED OUTBREAKS?
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said Australia and New Zealand had their epidemic in the summer.
He told MailOnline: ‘Although we don’t know for certain whether this disease will have a seasonality, I’m more convinced now than I was.
‘I expect it to be less infectious during the summer. [They] haven’t had exposure at the same sort of time of the year and that might have a big impact.’
New Zealand imposed a lockdown on March 23. At the time, it had around 150 cases. Australia had fewer than 1,000 cases when it shut its borders.
The UK had more than 6,000 cases when it imposed its lockdown on March 23 – but had given up on testing all patients, instead only swabbing those hospitalised.
It suggests the virus was circulating much more widely in Britain – and still will be – than in either of its counterparts in the Southern Hemisphere.
HOW MANY NEW CASES WILL BRITAIN RECORD BY THE END OF THE LOCKDOWN?
Professor Hunter pointed to the outbreak in Italy, which peaked at around 6,000 new cases a day on March 23 – but is now below 3,000.
He added that it is ‘achievable’ for the UK to get down to fewer than 2,000 cases a day by the end of the three-week lockdown extension.
And he said ministers would likely ease some strict measures by then but warned Britons not to get their hopes up for festivals and sports matches.
Professor Hunter told MailOnline: ‘Care homes won’t have restrictions removed any time soon, in my view.
‘And we’re not going to go back to large-scale public gatherings any time soon, so your Glastonbury tickets are worthless.
‘But there may be other aspects we can relax without putting us at particular risk… small family gatherings might be allowed.